U.S. to See a Record-Breaking 2 Million New Cancer Cases in 2024

This year marks the first time that new cancer case projections have surpassed 2 million, with more than 611,000 cancer-related deaths also estimated. ACS found increased diagnoses among 6 of the 10 most common cancers: breast, prostate, endometrial, pancreatic, kidney, and melanoma. Of those, breast, prostate, colorectal, and cervical cancers have recommended screening tests that are currently covered under the Affordable Care Act (https://voice.ons.org/advocacy/this-weeks-advocacy-news-united-states-urges-court-to-preserve-obamacare-mandate-to-cover), which could support early detection and prevention.

ACS also found that for some cancers, overall incidence appeared to remain stable but increased for certain subgroups: cervical cancer in people assigned female at birth age 30–44, oral cancers associated with human papillomavirus, liver cancer in people assigned female at birth, and colorectal cancer in people aged younger than 55 (https://voice.ons.org/news-and-views/as-colorectal-cancer-incidence-increases-in-younger-patients-uspstf-issues-new). Colorectal cancer is now the top cause of cancer deaths in people assigned male at birth younger than 50 and the second highest cause of cancer deaths in people assigned female at birth younger than 50.

Trends in the distribution of new cancer cases revealed that it is increasingly affecting younger people overall. People aged 65 and older made up 61% of all new cancer diagnoses in 1995 but 58% in 2019–2020, although they increased from 13% to 17% in the total U.S. population. People aged 50–64 increased from 25% to 30% of all new cancer diagnoses and from 13% to 19% in the total U.S. population. People  younger than 50 made up 12% of new cancer diagnoses in 2020, a decrease from 15% in 1995, but their overall cancer incidence rose.

Racial disparities also remain a factor. Cancer mortality rates for Black individuals with prostate, stomach, and uterine cancers are almost doubled compared with White people. Black individuals assigned male at birth have the highest overall cancer mortality rate of any sex-race group, which is directly tied to much higher prostate cancer incidence and death rates. Despite similar incidence of endometrial cancer, Black patients assigned female at birth have twice the mortality rate of their White counterparts. Later-stage diagnosis and worse survival play a role. 

Cancer incidence and mortality are highest overall among indigenous people (https://voice.ons.org/news-and-views/health-disparities-have-cancer-implications-for-indigenous-people-heres-how-to). Mortality rates for liver, stomach, and kidney cancer are twice as high in American Indian and Alaska Native people compared to White people, and Alaska Native people have the highest colorectal incidence and mortality globally. Compared to non-Hispanic White individuals, Hispanic people have lower incidence rates of common cancers but higher rates of infection-related cancers. Cervical cancer incidence is 35% higher in Hispanic than in White patients.